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WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?Editorial
World Halted by Coronavirus. When Will Coronavirus Halt?
The first cases of unusual pneumonia were reported in Wuhan, a port city of 11
million people in the central Hubei province of China on December 31, 2019. China
claimed to have alerted the World Health Organization (WHO) about this unknown
virus which was later termed as 2019-nCoV on January 7, 2020. China announced
its first death from COVID-19 on January 11. A second death in Wuhan was an-
nounced on January 17. Later, over the following days, news of confirmed cases of
Coronavirus started coming from Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan,
France, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, Iran, Italy, the United States, the Middle East
and host of other countries and regions. The WHO declared it a pandemic on March
11, 2020. Currently, the disease has spread across the world, affecting over 132,000
people in 123 countries and more than 4,900 deaths. China believes the peak of the
COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and China has passed and they are now busy in
containing the 'imported' cases. China expects that with $3 trillion in foreign reserves
the country will not have a problem achieving a 6 percent GDP growth in 2020.
The situation in rest of the world has turned alarming as COVID-19 has spread across
all major countries. The US has declared national emergency as coronavirus crisis
appears to have deepened. It won't be wrong to say that COVID-19 has halted the
entire world. People living in world's busiest cities have locked themselves up in their
homes. The normal life has come to a standstill. The worst part is that no one really
knows if, how and when the ghost of COVID-19 will be halted.
A significant economic downturn across the world is inevitable. The challenge is to
get through the next few months. The US central bank cut its benchmark interest rate
by 50 basis points on March 3 and again by 100-basis-point on March 15. Other
central banks around the world are expected to follow. China's central bank is also
under pressure to reduce its benchmark interest rate in view of China's economic
downturn. In addition, massive stimulus packages have been announced by the US,
UK, Italy, Australia to try to stave off a recession.
According to a recent Harvard Business Review analysis of high-frequency data on
proxies for the movement of people and goods, production, and confidence, China
appears to be in the early stages of an economic rebound only six weeks after the
initial virus outbreak. Many Chinese companies have already moved beyond crisis
response to recovery and post-recovery planning. Businesses, governments and
international authorities in Europe and the U.S. are scrambling to mobilize respons-
es to deal with the Covid-19 crisis as it spreads to new epicentres there. Clearly each
local situation is different, but there are opportunities for them to learn from different
regions in China that are weeks ahead in responding to the epidemic.
It is impossible to gauge the impact of the unfolding COVID-19 crisis. Any forecast will
be dubious when the virus trajectory is unknowable, as are the effectiveness of its
containment efforts, and consumers’ and firms’ assessments or reactions. There is no
single number that credibly captures or foresees Covid-19’s economic, social and
political impact. The Covid-19 outbreak is affecting supply chains and disrupting
manufacturing operations around the world forcing companies to temporarily shut
assembly and production plants in the U.S. & Europe. The activity of Chinese plants
has fallen in the past month and is expected to remain depressed for months.
The virus puts to the test various governments’ ability to effectively protect their pop-
ulations. Weak or inefficient leaders and brittle institutions could be exposed, and
political shifts triggered. Depending on its duration and severity, Covid-19 could even
shape the future of people's vision, lifestyle, well-being and attitude towards global-
ization.G.D. JASUJA
Managing Editor
NCM-MARCH 2020
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