The World and United States Cotton Outlook
million bales, as both production and
consumption remain largely within the
narrow range of fluctuations prevailing
since 2017/18. Falling area planted to
cotton, projected to fall about 4 per-
cent worldwide, is expected to offset
the impact of rebounding yields in a
number of countries.
The largest decline in area is expected
in India, where as much as 40 percent
of the world’s cotton area is located in
a typical year. India’s 2020/21 cotton
area is projected to fall about 3 per-
cent, while - assuming a normal mon-
soon - yields are expected to be about
unchanged. Currently, cotton prices in
India have lost ground compared with
other crops competing for area there,
suggesting a decline in the following
year’s planted area, and India’s 2020/
21 cotton output is expected to be
900,000 bales below 2019/20’s 29.5
million.
Lower area is also projected for Brazil,
and while the expected decline is
smaller than that foreseen for India,
Brazil’s substantially higher yields
mean a larger expected change in pro-
duction volume: down 1.2 million bales
from the year before in 2020/21, to 11.5
million. Brazil has maintained area at
record-high levels the last 2 years, and
has increased its underlying produc-
tive capacity significantly. While down
from the year before, Brazil’s 2020/21
cotton area is expected to remain 25
percent greater than that planted in
2017/18 and 55 percent greater than
in 2016/17.Estimated Changes in World Production,
2020/21 compared with 2019/20
China’s Stocks, Stocks Outside China,
and Stocks Outside China as % of Use
After Brazil and India, the next largest
drop in production is that projected for
the United States, a 600,000-bale de-
cline driven by lower area. Smaller de-
clines are foreseen for two other re-
gions that compete with the United
States on world export markets, Cen-
tral Asia and West Africa’s Franc Zone.sulted in a significant shortfall in Aus-
tralian precipitation stretching back into
the latter part of their 2018/19 growing
season. Assuming that the resumption
of higher rainfall that began in January
2020 keeps Australia on course for nor-
mal weather during the rest of 2020,
then improved irrigation supplies can
be expected to support increased
plantings of irrigated cotton, and bol-
ster dryland prospects as well.
Higher production is expected for two
countries that suffered significant set-
backs in 2019/20, Australia and Paki-
stan. Australia’s 2020/21 cotton output
is expected to rise about 800,000 bales
to 1.5 million. El Nino conditions re-While higher year-to-year, Australia’s
2020/21 production is still forecast at
about half of its long-term level. Simi-
larly, while Pakistan’s output is ex-
pected to rebound about 800,000 bales
from the year before, at 7.4 million
NCM-MARCH 2020
28bales, cotton output in 2020/21 is pro-
jected at one of the lowest levels for
Pakistan since the 1990s.
Little change is expected in China’s
production from the year before in 2020/
21. Current surveys of planting inten-
tions there suggest China’s 2020/21
cotton area will be slightly lower than
during the year before. Some of these
declines are likely to be offset by a
rebound in Xinjiang’s yield. China was
the world’s largest cotton producer from
1982 until 2014, when it was first sur-
passed by India. China regained the top
rank briefly in 2018/19, but India is pro-
jected to be the world’s largest cotton
producer in 2020/21, as in 2019/20.