The World and United States Cotton Outlook
tively moderate since 2012. The cot-
ton polyester price ratio has risen in
recent months, but remains within the
range established since 2015. The In-
ternational Cotton Advisory Committee
is forecasting only a small fiber share
loss for cotton in calendar 2020.AttributeUnit2019/202020/21Change (%)
Beginning Stocks
Area HarvestedMil. bales
mil. HA80.0
34.582.1
33.12.7
-4.0
World Trade, Stocks, and Prices,
2020/21Production
Importsmil. bales
"121.3
43.5118.5
44.5-2.3
2.2
World trade in 2020/21 is projected at
44.5 million bales, up modestly from
2019/20. China’s imports are projected
higher, as are those for Vietnam and
Bangladesh. Exports from the United
States, Brazil, Australia, and Greece
are expected to be flat, while exports
from Central Asia and the Franc Zone
will be lower on smaller crops. Exports
from India are forecast higher despite
lower production and higher use as
stocks held in the Minimum Support
Price program are pushed back into the
market.Total Supply
Exports"
"201.3
43.5200.6
44.5-0.3
2.2
Use
Total Use"
"119.0
119.2121.0
121.21.7
1.7
Ending Stocks
Outside of China"
"82.1
48.479.4
47.3-3.3
-2.1
Stocks-to-use%69.065.6-4.9
A lower global production forecast
coupled with higher use will result in a
more than 3-percent reduction in world
ending stocks. While most of the re-
duction will be seen in China, stocks
outside of China are also expected to
go down. The reduction in stocks out-
side of China follows four consecutive
years of higher stocks there. The
change in direction of stocks outside
of China coupled with a positive growth
rate in consumption, following two
years of lower global demand, will sup-
port higher price levels in 2020/21, both
U.S. and international. The average
price received by U.S. farmers is fore-
cast up 2 cents at 64 cents/pound.
U.S. Cotton Outlook for 2020/21
Area, Production, and Supply
The early USDA projection for 2020
U.S. cotton planted acreage is 12.5
million acres, 9 percent below 2019 and
the smallest area since 2016. Histori-
cally, the relationship between ex-
pected harvest prices for cotton rela-
tive to corn and soybeans has played
a key role in the cotton area planted.
Cotton futures prices from mid-Janu-
ary through mid-February 2020 aver-World Cotton Supply and Demand
2019/20 and 2020/21 est.
U.S. Cotton Area, Yield, and Production
2019/20 and 2020/21 proj.
AttributeUnit2019/202020/21Change (%)
Planted areamil. acres13.7412.50-9.0
Harvested area
Abandonment rate
Yield/harvested acre"
%
lbs./acre11.80
14.1
81710.95
12.4
855-7.2
-12.1
4.7
Productionmil. bales20.1019.50-3.0
aged 4 cents (nearly 5.5 percent) be-
low price expectations in early 2019;
for the same period, price declines for
corn (-1.5 percent) and soybeans (-2.5
percent) were smaller, indicating that
alternative crops are relatively more
competitive this year.
Another contributing factor to acreage
decisions stems from the cotton farm-
ers’ experiences during the previous
season. While crop yields in 2019 were
above average in three of the four Cot-
ton Belt regions, they were significantly
lower in the Southwest, where approxi-
mately 60 percent of the upland cotton
is planted. Additionally, the effects of
the Phase One trade deal with China—
along with the demand impact of
COVID-19—add further uncertainty
about 2020 as the spring planting sea-
son approaches.
The USDA projection is about 4 per-
cent (500,000 acres) below the recent
National Cotton Council (NCC) survey,
NCM-MARCH 2020
30which indicated 2020 cotton plantings
near 13.0 million acres; the NCC sur-
vey was released on February 15, re-
flecting responses received from mid-
December through mid-January. Sur-
vey respondents reported 2020 upland
cotton area decreases for each of the
Cotton Belt regions. In the Southeast,
the NCC survey revealed that cotton
acreage would decline 9 percent in
2020, with decreases indicated for
each of the States. For the Delta re-
gion, 2020 intentions also were ex-
pected lower across all States, with 6.5
percent fewer cotton acres due to an-
ticipated area increases for corn and
soybeans. In the Southwest, the sur-
vey indicated a nearly 3.5-percent re-
duction in cotton acreage as produc-
ers in Texas expect to plant fewer
acres, while those in Oklahoma and
Kansas plant more cotton. In the West,
the NCC reported that upland cotton
acreage is expected 20 percent lower
in 2020. In addition, the survey indi-